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Also known as: second-order effects, consequential thinking

Second-Order Thinking

TechnicalFrameworksStrategies

Definition

Second-Order Thinking: Second-order thinking considers not just immediate consequences of decisions, but the consequences of those consequences. First-order thinkers ask 'What happens next?' Second-order thinkers ask 'And then what?' This reveals unintended consequences and long-term implications.

Example Usage

“Cutting prices seemed smart (more customers). Second-order: we attracted price-sensitive customers who churned more and demanded more support. Net negative.”

Common Misconceptions

Only think two steps ahead. Consider third and fourth order for major decisions; stop when effects become speculative.
All second-order effects are negative. Some are positive; the point is to consider them, not assume they're bad.
Analysis paralysis is the risk. Keep it practical—identify major second-order effects, not every possible consequence.

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